weather it

Sources & method

Data & limitations

Weather It is only as trustworthy as its data. This page lists every source behind the figures, explains how the kit builder reaches its suggestions, and is honest about the limits of a prototype.

Primary data sources

State of the UK Climate 2024

Met Office · published in the International Journal of Climatology (Royal Meteorological Society)

The annual benchmark for UK observations — temperature, rainfall and records. Source of the warming rate (~0.25°C/decade), 2024 being the 4th-warmest year since 1884, the doubling of very-hot days, and the 2024 January temperature record. metoffice.gov.uk · full paper

UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) — Headline Findings

Met Office · Crown Copyright, August 2022

The national projections to 2100 (and sea level to 2300). Source of the summer/winter temperature and rainfall ranges, hot-spell frequencies, hourly-rainfall intensity, lying-snow decline, and the London/Edinburgh sea-level figures. Headline findings (PDF) · UKCP18 overview

National assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk in England 2024

Environment Agency · GOV.UK

The latest property-level risk picture: 4.6m properties at surface-water flood risk, 2.7m from rivers and the sea, a possible rise to 6.1m by 2040–2060, and 19,700 properties at risk of coastal erosion to 2100. gov.uk

Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), 2022 · with the Met Office Fire Severity Index

Source of the projected rise in 'very high' fire-danger days — roughly doubling at +2°C of warming and increasing ~5× at +4°C. nhess.copernicus.org

Attribution of the 2022 UK wildfire conditions

Met Office & UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 2025

Found that human-caused climate change made 2022's very-high fire danger at least six times more likely. metoffice.gov.uk · ceh.ac.uk

Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS), 2024

Projects worse droughts across more than 90% of UK catchments, and falling summer groundwater. hess.copernicus.org

A Well-Adapted UK / UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

Climate Change Committee (CCC)

The independent statutory adviser on UK adaptation. Source of the 1-in-500-year drought-resilience goal and the broader assessment that current adaptation needs urgent strengthening. theccc.org.uk

Met Office — rising likelihood of UK hot days (2025)

Met Office

Source of the 40°C statistics: now over 20× more likely than the 1960s, with roughly a 50:50 chance of another 40°C day within about 12 years. metoffice.gov.uk

How the kit builder works

1
Locate. Your postcode's area code (the leading letters) is matched to a regional climate-risk profile across eight hazards. In this prototype these profiles are illustrative samples reflecting broad regional patterns — not a live, property-level lookup. A production version would query authoritative maps directly (see below).
2
Personalise. Six questions about your home, household, outdoor space, proximity to water and budget adjust the relevance of each step — so renters aren't told to rebuild kitchens, and people with no garden don't get garden jobs.
3
Rank. Each step in the library scores against your area's hazards and your answers. Steps are sorted most-relevant-first, tagged by cost band and by whether they're a free habit, a one-off action, or an investment.

For a real deployment, the hazard profiles would be replaced with live calls to the Environment Agency / SEPA / Natural Resources Wales / DAERA flood-risk data, UKCP18 climate projections, and Met Office data — giving a property-level rather than area-level picture.

Limitations

This is a concept demonstrator. The charts use real published anchor figures, but the shape between anchor years — and any value past the latest projection year — is drawn to convey the trend, not as an exact annual record. Projection ranges reflect lower- versus higher-emissions scenarios and carry real uncertainty; the storms section is deliberately shown as low-confidence. Nothing here replaces official flood warnings, professional structural advice, or your insurer.

Crown Copyright material from the Met Office and Environment Agency is used under the Open Government Licence v3.0.